Sources and assumptions

A fictional game based on The Near-Bag Experience, an essay by Kram + Emma. Companies, job offers, work events, contracts, prices and timing are teaching examples.

About 1 in 3 exited. About 1 in 100 became unicorns. CB Insights followed 1,119 US tech companies first seed-funded in 2008, 2009 or 2010 through August 31, 2018. About 30% had an IPO or acquisition. Separately, 1.07% reached a valuation of $1 billion or more. A high valuation is not a sale or an employee payout. These are separate historical measures, not your personal odds.

Each company gets its own outcome. This game's lottery uses 30 exit outcomes in 100, including one fictional unicorn IPO outcome. Combining those outcomes is an authored rule, not a joint probability measured by the study. New runs use 3 IPOs, 27 acquisitions, 30 private companies and 40 closures per 100 outcomes. The IPO share roughly follows the 2018 NVCA exit mix. The 13 large and 14 small acquisitions are fictional assumptions. Existing saved runs keep their original lottery. Each company's outcome arrives four years after you join; an IPO adds six months before you can sell. The historical companies were followed for roughly eight to ten years. The game is not a forecast for any funding round.

One calendar. One paycheck. You can work at two startups while keeping equity from your first job. Salary is take-home pay. Living costs, share purchases, legal review and any accountant bill come out of the same bank balance. Company outcomes are independent in the game. Work setbacks are authored events, with at most two per job.

Your contract in this game. Options are earned over four years: none before the one-year cliff, 25% at year one, then monthly. Only earned options can be bought. You have 90 days after leaving to buy them. Quitting makes you a bad leaver under this contract: half your earned options are cancelled. A $5,000 lawyer negotiates good-leaver terms and the company agrees: you keep them all. Layoffs keep earned options either way. These are specific game terms. Real contracts vary, and a lawyer cannot guarantee this result. Options, vesting and leaver terms.

Cash arrives only when a sale pays you. Investors may be paid before employees in an acquisition. Public shares may be locked before you can sell. Liquidation preferences, private share sales and IPO lockups.

Equity taxes are not calculated. A possible $2,000 accountant bill is a fictional service cost, not a tax bill or an 83(b) election penalty. Real option taxes depend on the grant, exercise, sale and jurisdiction. The game buys only earned options. An 83(b) election can concern shares that are still subject to vesting, so it is not a generic penalty here. Unpaid bills are tracked separately if cash runs out. Interest, inflation and transaction fees are omitted. IRS: stock option taxes and IRS: section 83(b).